Oh no!
It's like this:
Update 2005-08-28, noon: I've now been tipped off that Katrina has moved from a Category 3 to a Category 5 with 160 mph sustained wind (that AP article on the NYT site that I linked above keeps changing). And my "strike-probabily" graphic above has been updated:
Update 2005-08-28, 5 pm : Mandatory Evacuation Ordered for New Orleans as Storm Nears . Unfortunately, if the sea floods the NO basin, it won't drain on its own. The article makes an interesting point about how critical the region is to our supply of imported oil.
Update 2005-08-29, 10:30 am : I'd been wondering how the Superdome would stand up to being used as a storm shelter. While presumably designed to withstand a lot with minimal damage to itself, it wasn't designed to be a shelter. This AP article gives some details about how it's all working out: Superdome's Roof Is Peeled Away in 2 Places (this AP article keeps changing too). Sounds pretty good so far. Pretty impressive that they cannot hear the howling winds inside the structure.
Bonny fortune for the city: Slight Shift Prompts Hopes That New Orleans May Avoid Worst
It has begun: High Winds and Rain Lash New Orleans and Southern Mississippi .
Update 2005-08-30, 11:30 pm : Needless to say that I'm happy the storm veered east of NO. Had if veered west, given the way it was spinning, the damage would have been so much worse than it was. New Orleans Escapes Direct Hit, but Most of City Is Inundated
Of course, the city has courted disaster: After Centuries of 'Controlling' Land, Gulf Learns Who's the Boss. And every year the protection of the delta, such as it is, continues to decline. (I think coastal erosion is a fascinating topic; one of my favorite lectures at Uni was a guest lecture about that topic by Orrin H. Pilkey .)
Not unrelatedly, I found it hilarious to read a quote in one article of a New York visitor to NO who was amazed at the looting he saw. He thought that NO was a "classy city." No, no. NO is a mixed, but significantly poor, improvised free-for-all built on a swamp. Much like NYC actually, but with less money and ambition (which, the current storm notwithstanding, is not to imply any less success).
In Austin, the Red Cross is setting up some additional shelter. Refugees of the storm can't afford to continue to stay in hotels.
Update 2005-08-31, 11:30 am : As the news relates, the relief of yesterday was premature. The delicate infrastructure of the levy system sprung leaks and waters are rising again. Surviving the Maelstrom Was Only the Beginning for Some
The refugees in the Superdome are being transported by 475 busses to the Houston Astrodome where they maybe be able to camp out until December or later! Wow. Bus Convoy to Move Thousands From Superdome to Astrodome
. Naturally our imbecilic Texas Gov. has a couple quotes which I find embarrassing.
Update 2005-09-01, 10:00 pm : It's a horror. When traffic is decent and the roads intact, the distance from my house to Metairie is only, exactly, 500 miles. 8 hours. So, I've this feeling of being so close. Yet so far. Except for rising gas prices, I've seen no real impact.
For the first time, I gave directly to the Red Cross. If you're reading this, then I imagine that you're a friend or family and can probably afford at least a $25 donation to the Red Cross . Let me encourage that, less than a dinner for two at a moderately priced restaurant. I'm under no illusions about the reality and limits of caring. My own. I did donate. But not all my savings. In a way, that would be irresponsible to do, poor planning just as NO itself was rendered so vulnerable by decades of poor planning.
Today I saw President Bush say on film, "I don't think anybody anticipated breach of the levies." Bush might not think so. But he might just not think very well or very kindly. Many have anticipated the breach in the not-unlikely event of a hurricane. Louisiana Senators on the news have said how they have given speeches on the floor year after year asking for money for the levies and related infrastructure. It was never enough of a priority to receive financing. So, the country gambled. And lost. It will cost more now to repair than it would have cost to maintain.
I have not personally checked the congressional record to verify the Senators' statements (is it available online? would anyone care if it were proven true?), but I'm inclined to believe them. Certainly the hurricane researchers at LSU have been warning about the city's continuously increasing vulnerability. There's plenty of reason to vote no-confidence in Bush, but I won't dwell on his inadequacies.
It's worth noting that a cat-5 hurricane did not hit the coast. And the cat-4 hurricane veered east (not west, huge difference) such that it did not make a direct hit with NO. The danger is not over and done with.
Update 2005-09-02, 12:30 am : It's neat to see that UTexas and other universities and law schools are making offerings to Tulane, Loyola, and other university students whose home institutions are shut down for some indefinite time by Katrina.
Update 2005-09-02, 7:00 pm : The magnitude of the disaster was no surprise to many of us (the President proclamation otherwise notwithstanding). As the NYT editors point out, there's plenty of evidence that, to some degree, this was a Man-Made Disaster . Also in the Times today, Krugman asks some interesting questions about our government's priorities, not the ones professed, but the ones we see in action.
Of course, lest y'all think I've only got my nose stuck in the NYT, there's plenty of good conversation going on by smart law profs at The Volokh Conspiracy. And other news sources appear to corroborate what I'm reading in the Times. But most of these Times web links, the ones that aren't to AP articles anyway, are such that they should remain stable. Something I don't trust will be true about most online sources.
Awesome: the author of the 2001 SciAm article wrote an op-ed which appeared in the NYTimes today: They Saw It Coming, by Mark Fischetti. I highly recommend it.